The HSBC "customer" account dumps another truckload of silver driving their 8 month total to 40.7 million oz.
July 10, 2024 15:47
++++++++++++++++ Silver
That HSBC “customer” account issued delivery notices on 116 silver contracts yesterday (July 9) increasing their July contract total to 6.3 million oz. Cumulative issues and stops on the July contract are as follows:
This delivery drives HSBC’s cumulative net silver sold to 40.7 million oz over the last 8 contracts, a period where they have been the dominant short.
This short position could have been initiated before first notice day on the July contract (which was June 27) and undelivered until yesterday. It is also plausible it was initiated on July 5 when 122 new contracts were written. I can’t tell from the data.
But damn, I wish I could. July 5 was the day when silver launched by $1/oz. If I knew HSBC shorted a truckload of physical in the face of that freight train … that would lend credence to my “Differential Lag Theory” where I’ve postulated HSBC is downwardly manipulating price by dumping metal at comex while simultaneously accumulating metal at other non-price setting venues.
A link to that:
Continuing on with HSBC … the delivered metal apparently was issued from MTB’s vault. I’m guessing that for 2 reasons. First, HSBC often vaults at MTB and second, 577 koz was moved into registered the same day at MTB’s vault. That’s a match of the 116 delivery notices at a highly plausible 995 oz per bar. Furthermore, only 2 (biz) days prior on July 5, 579 koz arrived at the MTB vault.
Sorting through that timeline … the net intel is this HSBC “customer” account continues to be the dominant short selling silver they have newly brought to comex’s vaults.
At today’s start of trading open interest on the July contract was 166 (830 koz), so there’s a chance HSBC is the short on some or all of of that silver remaining to be delivered.
Imagine a scenario of someone arriving at comex and buying 40 million oz of physical. What impact would that have? Invert it. That’s what HSBC has done.
++++++++++++++ Gold
The huge surge in gold open interest last Friday held through Monday’s sell off and has increased further to 516,000 contracts which is tracking the 5 year mean:
++++++++++++++++ Silver Vaults
A truckload arrived at JP Morgan’s vault and a truckload departed Asahi’s vault. That departure is metal sold earlier by HSBC.
In addition 577 koz transferred to registered at MTB’s vault as I mentioned above.
++++++++++++++++ Gold Vaults
14.8 koz transferred from registered to eligible mostly at Brinks:
You've absorbed an absolutely inconceivable amount of information. You've inspired folks. You should be and feel proud.
You are also a thorn that They earned.
Hey look!! JPM is stacking. Ha!
But where could this 'venue' possibly be? 40.7m oz is 1,266 tonnes of physical. That is 4.9% of global annual production.
For the last few months, Andrew Maguire has been saying that the Fed and Canadian Central Bank are the only gold/silver net shorts in town. Canada famously sold all its gold in the 90s and the Fed has (equally famously) never been audited. Who knows what they really hold?
What if the Fed and the Canadians have been sitting on a few thousand tonnes of silver that has not been disclosed? In 2000, silver was $5/oz. at that time 1,000 tonnes was roughly $160m, which in terms of a Central Bank balance sheet gets lost in the roundings of 'other assets'. They would not have had any obligation to disclose it separately.
If this is where the physical is coming from, it actually simplifies your idea. Instead of buying, 'cheaply', on 'another venue', (I have problems with the idea that anyone would be selling cheaply and I have no idea where such a venue might be) The Fed and Canadian Central Bank are simply selling from their previously undisclosed stock.