Thanks Michael for another great update. You are right to point out that verifiable analysis is almost non-existent. For the most part, we have to rely on anecdotes, because the real information is kept hidden.
From people I have been speaking to, the emerging picture is that China has indeed been the major seller for the last couple of years but China holds silver as a strategic asset and currently is believed to hold over 50,000 tonnes.
So why did China want a low silver price? Solar panels! Each panel contains 0.6 oz silver and silver is the biggest variable cost in manufacturing a panel. You can't have cheap panels if silver is expensive. So China was protecting its solar panel industry. We all know there has been excess demand for the last 5 years, without an active policy of holding down prices, China's solar panel industry would have been threatened.
Why did China stop holding the price down 2 months ago? Tariffs! What is the point of holding down silver if Trump is going to have a 150% tariff?
What we have seen in the last 6 weeks or so, has been off-loading of silver bought in anticipation of tariffs. That has now all been sold, so there is no downward pressure on silver prices.
This really could be the start of a long term uptrend in silver prices.
Glad you agree but no country better exemplifies the dichotomy of whether silver is a monetary metal or an industrial metal. The correct answer is that it is both - which is why China has built the largest strategic reserve of any country in the World. In addition to the 50k+ tonnes above ground, China has 80k+ tonnes below ground. Interestingly, although they have been encouraged to do so, there is no evidence that Chinese people have been buying much silver - they prefer gold.
I do not want to post an essay to your comments section but silver is critical to several industries in China and low material prices are critical to China's competitive position. If China had directly subsidized the users of silver, it would have run into WTO problems; to avoid this problem, China has sought to 'influence' the global price. It has been able to do this by buying direct at the mines and while the rest of the World is refining gold, China has used its spare refining capacity to refine silver. This does not show up on COMEX because China has huge stocks of silver from other refiners that it can use to settle. It has been able to do this without reducing its strategic reserve.
Tariffs change the game. If the US is going to trash WTO rules, then why should China worry about accusations of state subsidies? It might as well just go ahead and directly subsidize its own manufacturers whilst pushing the global price higher, to beat out the competition.
This very well could be the tipping point into The New Paradigm Shift and a potential resetting of the Silver price away from the LBMA and COMEX forever. Game over!
The differential lag theory has merit. However, the objective may have been to push down the price of silver concentrate. The rumor is that the Chinese have been accumulating, silver concentrate directly from the miners, and the contracts may be based on COMEX spot price.
I've heard that theory. Buying from the mines while selling some on comex for price suppression. This could also be consistent with Paul K's note above.
At a certain point, that account’s hoard of silver should be big enough, and they would be OK for the price of silver to shoot up. In fact, they would probably even want the price to shoot up. One could even imagine a multi year scenario where their hoard oscillates between growing for a couple years and then shrinking for a couple years and then repeating the process.
If China has been buying dore concentrate upstream, eventually that has to come downstream as a supply shortage. It's a good play, but it has a deadline built in.
Gold has disengaged from yields and the dollar, at least to some extent. I think silver popping like it has, independent of gold, is an indicator that this HSBC stand down has some merit.
Thanks Michael for another great update. You are right to point out that verifiable analysis is almost non-existent. For the most part, we have to rely on anecdotes, because the real information is kept hidden.
From people I have been speaking to, the emerging picture is that China has indeed been the major seller for the last couple of years but China holds silver as a strategic asset and currently is believed to hold over 50,000 tonnes.
So why did China want a low silver price? Solar panels! Each panel contains 0.6 oz silver and silver is the biggest variable cost in manufacturing a panel. You can't have cheap panels if silver is expensive. So China was protecting its solar panel industry. We all know there has been excess demand for the last 5 years, without an active policy of holding down prices, China's solar panel industry would have been threatened.
Why did China stop holding the price down 2 months ago? Tariffs! What is the point of holding down silver if Trump is going to have a 150% tariff?
What we have seen in the last 6 weeks or so, has been off-loading of silver bought in anticipation of tariffs. That has now all been sold, so there is no downward pressure on silver prices.
This really could be the start of a long term uptrend in silver prices.
That all sounds quite logical!
Glad you agree but no country better exemplifies the dichotomy of whether silver is a monetary metal or an industrial metal. The correct answer is that it is both - which is why China has built the largest strategic reserve of any country in the World. In addition to the 50k+ tonnes above ground, China has 80k+ tonnes below ground. Interestingly, although they have been encouraged to do so, there is no evidence that Chinese people have been buying much silver - they prefer gold.
I do not want to post an essay to your comments section but silver is critical to several industries in China and low material prices are critical to China's competitive position. If China had directly subsidized the users of silver, it would have run into WTO problems; to avoid this problem, China has sought to 'influence' the global price. It has been able to do this by buying direct at the mines and while the rest of the World is refining gold, China has used its spare refining capacity to refine silver. This does not show up on COMEX because China has huge stocks of silver from other refiners that it can use to settle. It has been able to do this without reducing its strategic reserve.
Tariffs change the game. If the US is going to trash WTO rules, then why should China worry about accusations of state subsidies? It might as well just go ahead and directly subsidize its own manufacturers whilst pushing the global price higher, to beat out the competition.
This very well could be the tipping point into The New Paradigm Shift and a potential resetting of the Silver price away from the LBMA and COMEX forever. Game over!
Remember they have cornered a very large bear into a very small corner!
Do they truly believe the bear will continue to stay subdued?
WW3 or the edge of insanity?
Yep. I think there are gonna be A LOT of distractions coming this month…and probably not either/or… it’s gonna be both and all the above.
The differential lag theory has merit. However, the objective may have been to push down the price of silver concentrate. The rumor is that the Chinese have been accumulating, silver concentrate directly from the miners, and the contracts may be based on COMEX spot price.
I've heard that theory. Buying from the mines while selling some on comex for price suppression. This could also be consistent with Paul K's note above.
At a certain point, that account’s hoard of silver should be big enough, and they would be OK for the price of silver to shoot up. In fact, they would probably even want the price to shoot up. One could even imagine a multi year scenario where their hoard oscillates between growing for a couple years and then shrinking for a couple years and then repeating the process.
If China has been buying dore concentrate upstream, eventually that has to come downstream as a supply shortage. It's a good play, but it has a deadline built in.
I think the buying of dore is a play on lower processing costs in China vs getting a lower price on the commodity itself. No?
Hi Michael!!
Great material.
I read all your publications in my email inbox.
Heres a question...
Last Thursday, gold was down, silver up, stocks down, yields down and dxy down....i think i have that right...Can you please explain that dynamic?
Gold has disengaged from yields and the dollar, at least to some extent. I think silver popping like it has, independent of gold, is an indicator that this HSBC stand down has some merit.
Excellent news!! The analysis in these comments is also the finest I have read - way above most I read on fin-twit!
Drones & drone tech are drinking up all the silver !
Cheers 🍸
Thanks for the keen insights. Invaluable.
Great article as always. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insight
Thanks for the great articles…really look forward to the insight and thanks for sharing the knowledge with ordinary people
Thanks Michael this is really interesting.
Looks like china now have the ability to use the pricing power as a weapon at a time they choose.
Will be interesting to see what next few weeks bring.
I think Gilbert has only finished above 36 at one previous quarter end, which I think was when the dollar index was at 75 ….
So fingers xx
Ty, I'm not sure how to put the pieces together yet
That’s silver not Gilbert….🤣
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Very interesting how that works! Would you like to come onto the podcast to discuss this in more depth?